The European Union has issued a warning that the United States may suffer significant economic losses if trade tariffs remain in place or intensify. European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis stated on Friday that current projections indicate a potential decrease in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by between 0.8% and 1.4% by 2027.

However, if the tariffs are made permanent or the trade dispute worsens, the United States could face a much steeper decline in GDP, estimated between 3.1% and 3.3%. The European Union's GDP is projected to fall by 0.2% under current conditions, and by 0.5% to 0.6% in a worst-case escalation scenario. The global economy is expected to shrink by 1.2%, while global trade could drop by as much as 7.7% within the same period.

Dombrovskis emphasized that these models do not factor in the potential loss of investor and business confidence in the United States, which could worsen the economic outlook further. “Europe did not start this confrontation and Europe does not want this confrontation,” he declared. “Tariffs go against the political and economic logic of the deep and long-standing transatlantic trading partnership valued at €1.6 trillion in 2023.”

These remarks highlight the mounting concern within the EU over the trajectory of U.S. trade policy. The warnings come amid continued diplomatic and economic tension between the transatlantic allies, as both sides navigate an evolving global trade landscape shaped by rising protectionism and geopolitical uncertainty.

The European Union has expressed readiness to negotiate and de-escalate the situation, reinforcing the value of mutual cooperation and open markets. Yet the economic models suggest that continued tariffs could pose serious risks not only to the involved parties but also to the broader global economy.